Whenever they show a Non-All-In hand on Television (other than HSP and PAD), it means that there was something very intriguing going on.
Here is the first in a series I'm starting called "TV Hand Analysis"
Here is the hand in question, from the 2006 USPC at the Taj Mahal. Between Michael DeMichele and Eric Crain.
DeMichele raises from MP with KQ of hearts. Standard raise. Crain has the button and calls with a Monster Stack and 86 of Spades. Decent call from here, but I prefer a Re-Raise to control the betting. However, in Eric's mind, he is going to raise DeMichele whatever the flop has when DeMichele C-Bets, unless the board brings a monster for Crain or a Royal Board of non-spades... Another reason to Re-Raise, though he didn't know it at the time because he wasn't known yet, was that Joe Pelton was the BB. Pelton won the WPT event and finished 3rd in another immediately before the USPC took place, but those episodes had yet to air... The Blinds Fold. (so much for Pelton)
Flop: 9-2-2 Rainbow. Obviously a great flop to Bluff on.
DeMichele checks; If he bets, Crain will probably bluff-raise no matter what he holds, and force DeMichele off. But if he was thinking this, he should've bet and when Crain raises, Re-Raise. But that's just my ROT. Crain checks for the same reason, I believe.
Turn is a 5 completing the Rainbow. Crain now has a Gutter Ball. DeMichele checks again. Crain Semi-Bluffs for Half of the pot, 5K. DeMichele is probably thinking either Bluff or Mid-Pair for Crain's range. Bluff includes medium/strong aces. DeMichele Check-Raises to 15K. Crain goes into thinking now. Does DeMichele have a big hand, or just AK, AQ, Mid-Pair? And why did he check the flop? To Check-Raise there? Crain decides to 3-bet to 65K, which is a massive overbet. The pot had 30K and he made it 40K more.
This is where DeMichele proves for the first (and definitely not the last) time that he is World Class. He decides to Shove representing AA or 99, which he would definitely at least check the flop with... Checking the turn with AA is problematic even though the board sucks. The Only hands Crain can call with are AA, KK, 55, 99, 22 and MAYBE QQ.
DeMichele was bluffing with the best hand, but I think he was 99% sure he made Crain fold a pocket pair (33-JJ, not 55 or 99) at the time.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOvDjNwWfm4
-Kenny
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2 comments:
ty for posting this. Once they check the flop the hand becomes really hard for me to understand. I'm still learning. I don't really get why they both check if they are going to shove huge in the end.
I could understand checking the flop to control the size of the pot on a dangerous board. But then a half pot bet on the turn is too much if that was the thinking. I like 1/3 more. It is more than enough to make a gut shot draw not profitable. Or I even like checking behind and making a play on the river.
I don't know... If a guy is gonna reraise you it doesn't matter if you bet 1/2 or 1/3. what really matters is how much you've left behind. That's my thinking right now.
another thing that's a little suspect is the big stack picks what looks like one of the smaller stacks to bluff. That's a little dangerous because you're just announcing, yeah I'll give you all the odds you want if you're short stacked. I prefer bluffing medium stacks.
IMHO, I think DeMichele plays the hand "ok" but I think Crain plays it terribly by picking the turn to make a move, and by 3 bet bluffing a shorter stack instead of a medium stack.
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