Thursday, September 18, 2008

TV Hand Analysis 2: Justin Phillips vs. Moto Mabuchi, Day 1 of the 2008 Main Event

You've seen this hand. It's the Royal Flush vs. Quads hand. However, they only showed the river action on TV, where Mabuchi bet his quads, Phillips raised and Mabuchi Splash-Shoved.

Here's how the action went down, and my analysis on the action.

From MP, Justin Phillips limps in with Kd-Jd. I guess this is an OK play with such deep stacks, but again, I would prefer a raise. Mabuchi raises from the SB with his A-A. Standard. Phillips calls. Also Standard.

Flop was Ah-Qd-9c , giving Mabuchi the nut set and Phillips a gutterball. Mabuchi checked, which is a play I am on the fence on. If you put him on a small pair (which I would put him on in this situation), then checking is right. But I wouldn't want to give a free card for KJ, JT or J8 to beat me, and frankly, all of those hands are possible, even off suit, because you're in the main event playing against a guy in a wifebeater.

Phillips checks behind looking to hit his gutterball.

Turn is a Td. Phillips makes his nut straight and has 2 of the 'pair the board' outs covered with his OESFD. Mabuchi bets, one street too late as it turns out, and Phillips just calls... If your opponent is on a flush draw or has a set, why not raise him to make him pay for his draw? If he has a set, you're getting it all in anyway, and a K or J kills your action!

River was the Ad, and you know what happened from there: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cdurs0C8mTM

The way this hand was played out, i know it sounds too nitty, but I might just smooth call with the quads there... why risk your main event? If you shove, unless he is a donk, he is not calling with a flush or straight, and might even fold an underfull if he reads the situation right.

But that's just me.

-Kenny

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

I'd shove quad aces here 100% of the time in this spot.... why you ask? Because after sitting at the table for hours with this hillbilly in the wife beater I'd have already succumb to an insurmountable level of life tilt. After seeing his Royal I'd probably be put in jail for attempted murder by strangulation... also bet the flop IMO.

Anonymous said...

"but I might just smooth call with the quads there... why risk your main event?"

youre an idiot

Anonymous said...

smooth call with quad aces. Yeah, you're a fucking tard, end your blogs and end your life.

Anonymous said...

1 in 2.4 billion chance and you would "smooth call"??!?!? You sir are a grade A moron

Anonymous said...

Smooth call quads!!! No chance in hell. 100% of the time you're losing your chips... because even if you had the quads, and didn't think you were going to get a call with an all-in bet... whatever value bet you made or pot bet would get re-raised by the royal flush.. and all of you're money is going into the pot that way. You're super retarded!! Like the previous posts... I agree.. quit the blog... quit poker.. now!